Menu
Data
The Peculiar Blindness of Experts
July 2, 2019
The pattern is by now familiar. In the 30 years since Ehrlich sent Simon a check, the track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain...
July 2, 2019
The pattern is by now familiar. In the 30 years since Ehrlich sent Simon a check, the track record of expert forecasters—in science, in economics, in politics—is as dismal as ever. In business, esteemed (and lavishly compensated) forecasters routinely are wildly wrong in their predictions of everything from the next stock-market correction to the next housing boom. Reliable insight into the future is possible, however. It just requires a style of thinking that’s uncommon among experts who are certain...
How to Deal With a Jerk Without Being a Jerk
June 30, 2019
It’s natural to get defensive, but that only escalates the cycle of aggression. Research on the psychology of certified jerks reveals that they have a habit of rationalizing aggression. They’ve convinced themselves that they have to act that way to get the results they want. I didn’t know how to respond until recently, when I interviewed Sheila Heen, a conflict mediation expert, for an episode of my WorkLife podcast on office jerks. She suggested finding a way to gently challenge the belief...
June 30, 2019
It’s natural to get defensive, but that only escalates the cycle of aggression. Research on the psychology of certified jerks reveals that they have a habit of rationalizing aggression. They’ve convinced themselves that they have to act that way to get the results they want. I didn’t know how to respond until recently, when I interviewed Sheila Heen, a conflict mediation expert, for an episode of my WorkLife podcast on office jerks. She suggested finding a way to gently challenge the belief...
Legal Data Analytics in Insurance Litigation
June 29, 2019
The rapidly growing area of legal data analytics provides insurers and their counsel with powerful technology to use when handling litigated claims. Legal data analytics provides unequaled insight into the behavior of courts, judges and counsel in litigated insurance cases. Analyzing data from actual cases allows insurers and their counsel improved understanding of how insurance cases are actually decided, how long cases last, and what litigation strategies have been successful. With...
June 29, 2019
The rapidly growing area of legal data analytics provides insurers and their counsel with powerful technology to use when handling litigated claims. Legal data analytics provides unequaled insight into the behavior of courts, judges and counsel in litigated insurance cases. Analyzing data from actual cases allows insurers and their counsel improved understanding of how insurance cases are actually decided, how long cases last, and what litigation strategies have been successful. With...
Could Your Immune System Be Making You Impulsive?
June 25, 2019
Being able to forego a reward now in favour of gaining something better later is known to be important in determining all kinds of desirable outcomes in life, including greater educational attainment, social functioning and health. However, choosing to delay gratification won’t always be the best option. If you’re in desperate circumstances – you badly need money to buy food, for example – taking the £10 today could be sensible. But this isn’t necessarily an entirely...
June 25, 2019
Being able to forego a reward now in favour of gaining something better later is known to be important in determining all kinds of desirable outcomes in life, including greater educational attainment, social functioning and health. However, choosing to delay gratification won’t always be the best option. If you’re in desperate circumstances – you badly need money to buy food, for example – taking the £10 today could be sensible. But this isn’t necessarily an entirely...
France’s Judicial Analytics Ban Unlikely to Catch On in U.S.
June 22, 2019
A new French law designed to restrict use of legal and judicial analytics is unlikely to catch on in the U.S., legal tech...
June 22, 2019
A new French law designed to restrict use of legal and judicial analytics is unlikely to catch on in the U.S., legal tech...
How Your Brain’s Executive Function Works — and How to Improve It
June 19, 2019
You use your brain's executive function every day -- it's how you do things like pay attention, plan ahead and control impulses....
June 19, 2019
You use your brain's executive function every day -- it's how you do things like pay attention, plan ahead and control impulses....
Emotional Evidence in Court
June 18, 2019
In the law, emotion is often viewed as extraneous to jury decision-making—either as an unavoidable byproduct of certain types of evidence or an impediment to the decision-making process. Even when the legal system does acknowledge the impact of emotion, it tends to overgeneralize across different types of emotions and legal judgments. Growing consensus in psychological science, however, reveals a much more complicated story. Emotion is not extraneous but rather inextricably intertwined with cognitive...
June 18, 2019
In the law, emotion is often viewed as extraneous to jury decision-making—either as an unavoidable byproduct of certain types of evidence or an impediment to the decision-making process. Even when the legal system does acknowledge the impact of emotion, it tends to overgeneralize across different types of emotions and legal judgments. Growing consensus in psychological science, however, reveals a much more complicated story. Emotion is not extraneous but rather inextricably intertwined with cognitive...
Are Lawyers Citing the Best Cases to Courts?
June 17, 2019
Here is a question I've never thought about before: Are lawyers citing the best cases to courts? In other words, do the courts use the cases cited in the briefs, and how often do the courts use cases not mentioned in any brief? The answer may surprise you! Kevin Bennardo & Alexa Chew (UNC), Citation Stickiness. "This Article is an empirical study of what we call citation stickiness. A citation is sticky if it appears in one of the parties’ briefs and then again in the court’s...
June 17, 2019
Here is a question I've never thought about before: Are lawyers citing the best cases to courts? In other words, do the courts use the cases cited in the briefs, and how often do the courts use cases not mentioned in any brief? The answer may surprise you! Kevin Bennardo & Alexa Chew (UNC), Citation Stickiness. "This Article is an empirical study of what we call citation stickiness. A citation is sticky if it appears in one of the parties’ briefs and then again in the court’s...
Incentives, Performance and Choking in Darts
June 14, 2019
This paper examines the effect of incentives on the performance of darts players. We analyze four data sets covering a total of 28,761 darts matches of professional, amateur, and youth players. The game of darts offers an attractive natural research setting, because performance can be observed at the individual level and without obscuring effects of risk considerations and behavior of others. We find that amateur and youth players perform better under moderately higher incentives, but choke when...
June 14, 2019
This paper examines the effect of incentives on the performance of darts players. We analyze four data sets covering a total of 28,761 darts matches of professional, amateur, and youth players. The game of darts offers an attractive natural research setting, because performance can be observed at the individual level and without obscuring effects of risk considerations and behavior of others. We find that amateur and youth players perform better under moderately higher incentives, but choke when...
“Shooting The Messenger” Is A Psychological Reality – Share Bad News And People Will Like You Less
June 12, 2019
But it turns out this phenomenon of “shooting the messenger” is not just restricted to fiction. A new paper in Journal of Experimental Psychology: General has demonstrated that we do tend to take a dim view of the bearers of bad news – even when these people are simply innocent messengers. Altogether, the research suggests that “shooting the messenger” has a real basis in the way people act in everyday situations. It seems to stem from a number of sources,...
June 12, 2019
But it turns out this phenomenon of “shooting the messenger” is not just restricted to fiction. A new paper in Journal of Experimental Psychology: General has demonstrated that we do tend to take a dim view of the bearers of bad news – even when these people are simply innocent messengers. Altogether, the research suggests that “shooting the messenger” has a real basis in the way people act in everyday situations. It seems to stem from a number of sources,...
