Alexandra D. Lahav and Peter Siegelman (University of Connecticut – School of Law and University of Connecticut – School of Law) have posted The Curious Incident of the Falling Win Rate on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
For 40 quarters starting in 1985, the plaintiff win rate in adjudicated civil cases in Federal courts fell almost continuously, from 70 percent to 35 percent, where it remained—albeit with increased volatility—for the next 15 years. We explore, and largely reject, several possible explanations for this surprising finding. Although the reason for the falling win rate remains a mystery, we conclude that courts may need to justify decisions not only in individual cases, but at a systemic level.
