Oftentimes when we think we’re engaged in reasoned policy discussion we’re actually engaged in complex efforts to rationalize the direction in which our tribal affiliations are pushing us. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. And they’ve shown its power in laboratory settings again and again and again.

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The problem is that human beings are incredibly good at rationalizing their way to whatever conclusion their group wants them to reach. And most policies can be supported — or opposed — on many grounds. It’s all about which parts people choose to emphasize. A conservative who emphasizes individual responsibility and loathes government coercion can find good reasons both to support and oppose the individual mandate.

The beliefs that result aren’t held cynically. They’re held sincerely. And that’s much more powerful. Even when people flip positions entirely, they believe they’ve done so because they’ve absorbed new evidence and changed their mind. What could be more honest than that? The fact that the transition aligned exactly with the changing interests of their party is just an interesting coincidence.

 

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Tags: motivated reasoning, Nate Silver, Settlement Negotiations, tribal affiliations