In the vast majority of cases, clients have a greater likelihood of making a devastating settlement decision in a mediation session than watching their attorney conduct a devastating cross-examination at trial. – Randall Kiser

Some of the sharpest men in argument are notoriously unsound in judgment. I should not trust the counsel of a smart debater, any more than that of a good chess-player. – Oliver Wendell Holmes

The appropriateness of lawyers’ probability judgments has important implications for the quality of their service – decisions about whether to sue, settle out of court, or plead guilty to a lesser charge, all depend on a lawyer’s judgment of the probability of success. Surprisingly, then, there is relatively little research assessing the calibration of lawyer’s probability judgments in their day-to-day practice. – Douglas Rosenthal

Law firm clients, consequently, have become accustomed to working in two different realms. The first realm, outside their lawyer’s office, is increasingly directed by data and requires quantitative justification for decisions and objective evidence of accomplishment within budget. The second round, inside their lawyer’s office, is characterized by “on the one hand this, on the other hand that” legal advice, lengthy narratives and memoranda, caveats that loom larger than general propositions, and attorneys who submit total fee projection and then quote blow through it in half the time.” – Craig Northlund

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Tags: Oliver Wendell Holmes, probability, probability judgments