This is an excerpted chapter from “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t” by Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. The book was published in September 2012 by Penguin Press, and this chapter was the inspiration for “The Man vs. The Machine,” a short documentary film directed by Frank Marshall and produced by FiveThirtyEight and ESPN Films.
Tell a story
A growing body of research points to the power of stories to change our attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors. Bear this in mind as you create your slides and talking points. “Stories wrap information in meaning and help your audience absorb your message in a memorable way,” says Duarte. First-person anecdotes about overcoming hardships or obstacles “build tension,” and give the audience something or someone to cheer for, she adds. The common alternative to stories — overloading...
A number of amendments to the Federal Rules of Practice and Procedure and official bankruptcy forms became effective December 1, 2014. The changes to the Federal Rules follow recommendations by the Judicial Conference of the United States, review by the Supreme Court, and consideration by Congress. The amendments affect the Appellate, Civil, Criminal, Bankruptcy and Evidence Rules.
The Federal Rules of Practice and Procedure govern the conduct of trials, appeals, and cases under Title 11 of the United...
The unconscious working of the brain makes interpretation of what a painful experience is all about difficult. We all have an inner world of thoughts and sensations, habits, fantasies, and dreams, and much of what happens to us is beyond conscious awareness. This makes many of us strangers to ourselves, unaware of how we truly feel at any one moment of our lives. Indeed, much of our behavior is automatic; we tend to resort to repetitive habits and attitudes that don’t really express who we are,...
The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office officially awarded Apple U.S. Patent No. 8,903,519 for a "Protective mechanism for an electronic device," which looks to safeguard expensive computer hardware from accidental drops, a problem that has become all too familiar with the latest slim iPhone designs. Apple's invention can not only estimate where a device will make impact, but actively shift the unit's center of gravity so that sensitive components like glass screens and cameras are not damaged.
As...
Despite the popularity of Maslow’s Hierarchy, there is not much recent data to support it. Contemporary science — specifically Dr. Edward Deci, hundreds of Self-Determination Theory researchers, and thousands of studies — instead points to three universal psychological needs. If you really want to advantage of this new science – rather than focusing on a pyramid of needs – you should focus on: autonomy, relatedness, and competence.
Autonomy is people’s need to perceive that they have...
IBM's Watson may play a part in helping firms better manage pricing. Early this year, IBM sunk $1 billion into creating a new business unit, the IBM Watson Group, to develop and commercialize Watson in several specific industries, including legal. Rich Holada, vice president of transformations for the legal industry in the IBM Watson Group, said the unit is targeting three sets of customers: large law firms, legal service providers, and corporate law departments.
Holada stresses that Watson is not a product,...
Probably the most fertile ground for the use of legal business analytics relates to predicting costs for litigation matters. It can be done, within reason. The concept makes sense— e-billing has been around for a long time, there is much available data, why not use it?
Predictability of outside spending is a top law department pain point, as is controlling costs. Analytics can help predict and manage three components of spending: billing rates, staffing and productivity. The most common is billing...
In a recent article, Identifying Judicial Empathy: Does Having Daughters Cause Judges to Rule for Women's Issues?," Adam Glynn (Harvard--Govt.) and Maya Sen (Harvard--Kennedy School) explores the influence of circuit judges having daughters on judicial outcomes. What they finds is that while having a daughter generates a "liberalizing effect" in gender-related cases, they authors are less clear on "how the effect works." The paper's abstract follows.
“In this article, we consider whether personal...