Analyzing the data along with MIT VMS’s Roman Lubynsky, the researchers found that overall, in fact, the mentors had an uncanny ability to predict the success of ideas. Compared to an average venture, which attracted interest from six mentors, a venture that attracted twice as much interest was 27 percent more likely to commercialize (which Shu and her colleagues defined as having multiple repeated sales, an Amazon storefront, or a technology licensing, among other measures of success).
When the researchers drilled down into the data, however, they found some marked differences in the ability to forecast success based on the industry of the proposed idea. Expert interest was highly predictive of success in sectors that were R&D intensive, such as energy, hardware, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. However, in non-R&D-intensive sectors, such as mobile apps and software, the ability to predict success was no better than random.
