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Offer Research

Some litigants demand the “4:00 PM offer” at 9:30 AM. Others pace the negotiation dance to patiently finesse and test “bottom lines”.

Whether the dance takes months or hours, it has a rhythm – and a minimum number of steps. Menu car pricing failed because we want to negotiate, often in glittery showrooms where it’s apparent who’s winning. And if the hidden sales manager takes our first couple of offers, we are cursed with having paid too much. Thus the dance.

We all have informed hunches about offer cadences. Theorists have posited general rules of thumb:

  • concession rates are about half as much as the last concession and take about twice as long to give up
  • settlements nest around a 3:1 (plaintiff:defendant) concession point
  • a settlement can be found half-way between the first two reasonable offers

But we don’t really have much empirical work on concession rates or the time it takes to make them. With your help, that will change.

We’re collecting anonymous data on the offers made on the way to successful outcomes. Not only the dollar amounts of the offers, but the time between them (or your best estimate of it). Some will have three offers on each side, and others 13.

Since you’re likely keeping track of the offers anyway, this won’t slow your mediation pace. You just take notes like you always have, note the times next to the offer, and fax your redacted notes to (210) 212-7118. You are also welcome to use this simple PDF form. acrobat.com… A printed copy may be handy in your negotiations or mediation and it can be easily filled in online too. Whatever simplifies the process for you.

Be sure to check back to see how the project is going!